关键词: 少数民族村寨, 火灾风险评价, 层次分析法(AHP), 解释结构模型(ISM), 网络层次分析法(ANP), 物元可拓模型

Abstract: In order to solve great fire hazards and difficulties in fire prevention and rescue in ethnic minority villages, a hierarchical fire risk assessment model was established for a representative village in Guizhou by using AHP. Then, impact relationship between various indicators was obtained through ISM, and index weights were determined by ANP. Finally, grey relational analysis was introduced to determine relevance degree of environmental influence factors before fire hazard levels in such villages were acquired by applying matter-element extension model. The results show that the largest evaluation index weight is fire load density, accounting for 11.8% while the smallest is fire station grade, accounting for 0.4%. After evaluation, 10 indexes reaches safest level, namely level four, making up for 32.2%, and 5 indexes reaches the most dangerous level, namely level one for 15.41%. The comprehensive risk level of these minority villages is level 3, which is comparatively low.

Key words: ethnic minority villages, fire risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process(AHP), interpretive structural modeling(ISM), analytic network process(ANP), matter-element extension model